I am Definitively, Absolutely, and Without Shame: Not a Politician.

With this title I hereby immunize myself against any criticism while I go on a political rant. After all, how many times has a politician used the line, ‘I am not a scientist’, before going on to say something that would only be imbecilic if it weren’t unbelievably dumb.

Especially given the outcome of this recent election. To lay my political cards on the table, I feel fortunate I to live in the one county in Maine that voted out our incumbent state representative, an old Republican, and replaced him with a younger Democrat. No, I don’t understand how the thrice married failed casino impresario convicted felon from Manhattan (TMFCICFM) managed to appeal to just barely under half (49.8%) of my fellow Americans who voted, and win the presidency back. Therefore, without a clue as to the political zeitgeist of this country I will boldly make a bunch of political prognostications.

First, this was a fair election with a clear outcome, the Democrats made no fuss about it and Kamala Harris conceded. Does this inoculate us from Republicans in future elections with results less favorable for them claiming the whole system is rigged? Does the sun rise in the north and the moon set in the south? Interestingly, had the result been the opposite, a blue wavelet, TMFCICFM and a surprisingly small cadre of supporters would have cried the whole thing was rigged, but the majority of Republicans would remained silent on the topic (they’ve had SO MUCH PRACTICE), and the change in Presidency would have gone smoothly.

The incoming Administration will be handed the keys to a government that has the fewest domestic issues probably of my lifetime, and if you compare the domestic challenges the US has faced in the last 60 years to the challenges of the prior 200 years, then it’s safe to say, in US history. The numbers speak for themselves, the most robust economic growth of any major developed economy, no wars that directly engage US troops, low unemployment, low inflation, declining interest rates, overall crime rates relatively low and moderating, even our most shameful national statistic, an overall decline in life expectancy has flattened and may have even reversed direction.

What’s remarkable is when you compare this to four years ago when the Biden administration took over from the most shambolic government of my lifetime that actively tried to subvert the transfer of power. Lots of prognosticators then said Joe had an impossible task, the history books will eventually record that what he did on his watch was indeed remarkable.  Given that the most experienced hands in TMFCICFM’s previous administration have pretty much universally said he is un-fit for office, the likely outcome this time around is for a remarkably rapid decay into an unprecedented level of shambolism. How long will it take for this to reflect itself in economic, health, and international issues…not very.     

The old adage: It is expensive to hire a professional but will cost you more to hire a bloviating, incompetent amateur will be means tested.

TMFCICFM will pardon the Jan 6th traitors posthaste, this will play well for the most rabid cultists, but leave between 60 and 70% of the country either disgustedly opposed, or agnostically holding their noses. Most of what actual focus he is capable of will be on persecuting his ‘enemies’ (pretty much everyone who is not an avowed and up to date cultist).

The executive branch will be riven with back-biting as most of the people try ever harder to show their fealty to TMFCICFM at the cost to the dude, or dudette, who sits next to them. In general, this will allow Congress to do what Congress does best, spend taxpayer money. The executive branch will put in laughable budget requests (either high or low), and Congress will do as it pleases. Certain agencies like the EPA, the IRS, and Education will really suffer, but on the whole government spending will increase as there is little fiscal discipline.

Lots of immigrants will be rounded up initially with a bunch of deportations, but overall, there will be little change along the border, except for a whole lot more suffering and dysfunction, no one will happy.

The whole tariff thing will be a patchwork and mostly just piss everyone off. Budget deficits will continue to climb substantially, and quite possibly inflation will come back at 4 – 7%. These factors combined with fewer immigrants providing cheap labor will result in continued housing shortages, interest rates stalling at around 5% and either creeping back up, or inflation pushing past 7%.

As a note, I bought my first house in the 1990’s, paying about $8,000 (or about 3 or 4%) more than the sellers had 8 years earlier, and thinking a 6.25% mortgage wasn’t too bad. So, I do believe that the combination two generations of Americans having not experienced either high inflation or high interest rates, experiencing both in the last four years was the primary reason TMFCICFM won over enough of the non-cultist portion of the electorate to win the popular vote (with about 500,000 fewer votes than he lost the popular vote by to Hilary Clinton) and the electoral college.

All this combined with general apathy at the US’s reduced role in world affairs (and forget about being ‘a shining light on a hill’) will put another chink in the US dollar as the world’s fiat currency. Note that if the US dollar is no longer the world’s fiat currency, then it’s conceivable in 20 years even the average Brexit Brit could look across the Pond at us, and shake their heads in wonder at how it could have all gone so wrong.

Something BIG will happen and this administration will be like a clown car running uphill in reverse trying to deal with it.

Elon Musk will change the rules so he can run for President in 2028.

The two biggest or Two of the biggest (your choice) egos of this part of the 21st century will work in harmony together…OR NOT.

OK, to end on a positive note: TMFCICFM is definitely showing signs of age and senility based on most of his recent campaign rally speeches, and his inauguration speech will doozily re-enforce that. Elon and company will quietly work in the background (DID I REALLY JUST WRITE THAT) to bring some real disruption to an admittedly sclerotic process in US governance, and strike a balance between some libertarian principles (keep the government out of peoples bedrooms and sexuality, beyond basic laws around incest, trafficking, and rape); transparency and openness in government processes (be nervous Pentagon); common-sense governmental regulations (the current regulatory environment often makes this country seem like the HOA (home-owners association) from Hell), and a serious effort to tackle the greatest problem human civilization currently faces, climate change, through market-driven approaches underlain by world-class science.

If none, some, or all of these prognostications come true I will be exactly as accurate as I am and proud of it! It’s going to be a wild time!