Whither the Weather, Again
- mariprofundus
- Dec 16, 2024
- 5 min read
This was one of the first BDN blogs I wrote, nearly 10 years ago! Weather is a fun topic, and often an important one. Wonderfully controversial and absolutely unambiguous at the same time! I have added a few brief updates, and included a graph showing the heating degree days for Portland ME for the last 20 years, but you can be the judge of how much things have changed.
During this string of comparatively balmy December days in Maine, it’s interesting to think about what’s up with the weather. I am not a meteorologist, but I like the numbers associated with weather. For example, as we approach years end (2015), according to the website Weather Underground, Portland has had 39 inches of rain, making it probable it won’t make it to the 48 inch yearly average. So after nearly a decade of rainfall totals over 50 inches (with the exception of 2013 & 2007), this will be a ‘dry year’. The heating degree days (that take an average daily high and low temperature) since July 1st stand at 1,437, this is 17% below the average number of heating degree days of 1,714, for this time of year. This is fairly consistent with the trend for decreased heating degree days over the last decade (see graph below for current update). Surprisingly, even with our past cold winter, the total heating degree days for the year (July 1, 2014 – June 30, 2015), were still slightly (0.4%) below normal.
The nice thing about weather statistics is that they are clear, unambiguous numbers. So many inches of snow or rainfall, the high temperature is this, the low that; the wind blew so many mph, and there is a precise number for the barometric pressure. Numbers are a foundation of science, because as scientists we spend a lot of time measuring things and reporting the results as numbers. We analyze those numbers for patterns, using mathematical tools that can be simple, or very complex. Some of the most successful scientists are those who have a knack for recognizing patterns in numbers.
Weather data also shows the limitations of numbers. As an historical record weather data is accurate, yet trying to make a precise forecast about what the weather will be like in the next week, or month, is impossible. Weather is the result of wind and moisture patterns around the globe that are driven by the season, and also tied to water current patterns in the ocean. Together this complexity is called climate. Basically, the climate is too complex for us to accurately predict the weather. This does make the weather a nice topic for conjecture about what the weather going to do next.
I grew up in Maine, then after college, moved away for a long time, and have now been back for eight years (more like 18!). Based on memories, my impression is that winters are warmer and snowier, which, since I don’t appreciate the cold, but like the snow, is the way life should be (it barely feels like winter at all now along the coast). However, this is an example of some bias and conjecture on my part. Anecdote, bias, and conjecture are great for sessions in the bar or around the campfire, and sometimes lead to scientific study, but should not be mistaken for science.
Although as a digression, my brother does have my back on memory. This Thanksgiving he ‘fessed up that in the winter of 1963 or 4, he and one of the neighbor boys rode their bikes across the ice from Oceanville on Deer Isle to Swan’s Island. Check that one out on a map, all you parents of teen-age boys!
A responsibility as a scientist is to give numbers to speculation in a rigorous, systematic way that can be understood and repeated by others. The ultimate goal is to learn something about how the world works, and use that knowledge to, for example, make better weather forecasts (and they are getting better!), or predict the direction and magnitude of climate change. In ten cases out of nine, the route from anecdote to scientific ‘fact’ is a long and arduous one. And at the end of the journey that scientific ‘fact’ can be true, but still elusive to what comes next. That can make it challenging to communicate to people, especially folks who would like the ‘facts’ to fit a particular bias, especially if that bias is likely to get them re-elected.
Of course, these days, it’s hard not to think about the weather and not also think about climate change, especially with the big international negotiations going on in Paris, and about how we, as a planet, are going to go about reducing carbon emissions (we haven’t), The general predictions of a warming planet is that dry places will get dryer, wet places will get wetter, most places will get warmer, but depending upon how major ocean currents flow, some places could get colder. It looks like for the last decade these predictions have been holding up pretty well for our little neck of the woods. One nervous-making anomaly is that the Gulf of Maine is one of the fastest warming bodies of water in the world, and there’s not a good explanation for it (actually we are starting to explain this, and amazingly enough, ‘its complicated’).I know it’s naïve to ask, but why aren’t we having any congressional hearings about that?
Anyway, it’s coming on winter in Maine (eventually), where I sit at a precise 44.119 degrees north of the equator, and I am going to go forth with a bold prediction about the weather. There is going to be a whole lot of it, some wicked, some nice, and, if we are lucky, some wicked nice. I’m also willing to make a wager that none of our children’s children’s children’s children ever get to ride their bikes across the ice from Oceanville to Swans Island.
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